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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising IT Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.03 11:09:00 -
[1]
Quote:
4) scrap the entire current reaction chain and start from scratch
This.
When a company openly admits they borked it hard (no, I won't link where they state that, no time and just do your *** homeworks (not aimed to Akita ofc)) and when their own players show more knowledge and even care than them, then it's time to fix the reasons why this is left to happen.
IE once it becomes publicly stated how alchemy values were derived from the inflated values of the long time exploit, *the next day* the alchemy values should have been changed. Not a duct tape approach that is nice as Minmatar roleplay but has really no place in a professional MMO. - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.08.30 19:44:00 -
[2]
@Akita: I made a little graph about Technetium.
Linkage - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.01.17 13:45:00 -
[3]
Quote:
who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ?
Why would CCP have to do anything about this? - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.02.24 16:40:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Wabs didnt akita just sell 1.000.000 units at 85, and after that put a new one up @ 100k? thats what im thinking
1 mil at 50k a longer time ago, which held the upwards price course still for well over one week several smaller bunches in between 1 mil at 85k, sold after they sat there for more than a couple of weeks 500k at 90k put up the day after the 85k priced ones sold, and itself sold almost overnight 500k at 100k, still up there 1 mil still in hangar
You gradually exited your positions like a trader pro, unloading by risk thresold. I am curious about what do you do in RL at this point - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.04.24 06:47:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Herman Klaus It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP.
Not very soon, but give it half a year with tech reaching even more ludicrous prices (up to almost the old dyspro/prom levels) and they might just get their asses in gear... Plus, "The Mittani" seems somewhat interested in the issue regarding "nerfing" it (in spite of his acknowledged control over quite a few of them, 44 if memory serves right), and he did kinda' whip CSM6 into shape better than any other previous CSMs, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of this issue being resolved with slightly less than the usual CCP "wait a few years more after it's bad" pace.
Could someone explain me what's wrong with this market? It's nicely trending, it's showing a third Elliot Wave behavior like most realistic markets do.
Why would you want to castrate it and make it just like thousand other flat and dead EvE markets?
Items / ships prices too high you say? Though luck. Like in RL. Go war those who hold the "diamonds mines". Like EvE is meant to be.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.04.25 00:08:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Dhaaran
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Herman Klaus It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP.
Not very soon, but give it half a year with tech reaching even more ludicrous prices (up to almost the old dyspro/prom levels) and they might just get their asses in gear... Plus, "The Mittani" seems somewhat interested in the issue regarding "nerfing" it (in spite of his acknowledged control over quite a few of them, 44 if memory serves right), and he did kinda' whip CSM6 into shape better than any other previous CSMs, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of this issue being resolved with slightly less than the usual CCP "wait a few years more after it's bad" pace.
Could someone explain me what's wrong with this market? It's nicely trending, it's showing a third Elliot Wave behavior like most realistic markets do.
Why would you want to castrate it and make it just like thousand other flat and dead EvE markets?
Items / ships prices too high you say? Though luck. Like in RL. Go war those who hold the "diamonds mines". Like EvE is meant to be.
Something to keep in mind here - we ARE talking about a video game, so there is always a design perspective, not only a market perspective. Even though it is perfectly fine from a market perspective just like nocxium, it might demand change from a design perspective - which it does imho. Your current stance would also prohibit any and all balance changes as far as ships/weapons go, yet they have happened in the past. same goes for moon go obviously - there was a time when tech was not very desireable, yet here we are with tech being gold - due to design decisions. so it will happen again. the question is just: when?
Nope, a nano win ship was not a market thing, it was just ill conceived. The only real change that would have been needed for Technetium imho was to shuffle the moons around in a more equally distributed way.
The bottleneck? Dr Eyjo rigthly said that once you remove one, you will find the next. It's the sort of typical never ending fight where you see CCP increasing maximum sustainable blob sizes and FCs bringing in more blob to crash the server.
Fixed Technetium scarcity, the next scarce element will take its place.
The current level is just fine, T1 ships have realistic prices, T2 ships look fine and mods don't seem to be overly expensive.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.05.23 08:29:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
If they did, would they say so?
There's not a single reason to emasculate every single market so it becomes a zero volatility flatness of boredom.
If Dr. Eyjo fiddled with markets like some interventists would do, then EvE would become completely fake and crap.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.06.09 07:51:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
CCP would be crazy to nerf Technetium in the next month.
What they should do is to burst the bubble sitting over the actual shortage of it. They could start a FUD campaign by the non economy involved CCP employees. Oh wait, it's exactly what the previous posts quoted.
Only after there's no bubble in the way, it's possible to realistically model a change in the demand => supply chain.
Otherwise they risk overshooting it and nerfing it into the ground (something MMOs devs tend to do already).
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.06.17 09:34:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Akita T
The fact that all those words came up just as the tech market reached a mini-slump of its own naturally (any stockpiles of tech being sold by parties involved in the northern war at just about any price just to get some liquidity fast) and panic overlapped with a small drop has caused the drop to amplify (panic-selling of some traders and/or long term holders).
It's not a random chance that CCP scared people twice (technetium and PLEX) and *guess what* right when it was the best time to cause a larger reaction. They are simply manipulating the markets with the most easiest tools.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.06.23 06:25:00 -
[10]
So, people invested on Technetium on the premise NC acted like a centralized alliance like BoB did with Dysprosium and similar?
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.06.25 15:36:00 -
[11]
Originally by: TornSoul Damn - Already rebounding.
Never got as low as I was hoping for...
Time to cheer for it to skyrocket again I guess...
Let me guess, it started rising once the overall market liquidity (read: strong investors) moved out of PLEXes?
Because that's what happens in RL too, when a market is not seen as very profitable, you see its liquidity drop.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.10 07:07:00 -
[12]
Yeah, plus right now there are much more promising markets than Tech.
It'd be fun if someone could scavenge the year old posts with me and Anakienine discussing about the future (now current) Tech prices. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.11 07:05:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 11/07/2011 07:06:01
Originally by: AnakieNine
Did someone say my name. Hi VV.
A couple of weeks ago I was talking to a friend about that thread. I mentioned I had just re-read it and was happy with how things applied today.
It is/was pretty spot on. I don't actively play anymore and allowed 11 of my 13 accounts to go idle. The remaining 2 Only really get used to collect rare items off the markets along with and the occasional long term sell/buy.
Edit) What the hell! For those that want to go down memory lane. :) First the Nanotransistors thread which latter moved over to the Technetium
Hello, AnakieNine. It was fun times, expecially that forum flirting to make the prices go where you wanted
I have just viewed those old threads, that indirectly sent back to my RL analysis thread, where there was that graph showing Tech ceiling at 120k so many months ahead of the time...
At the same time, those flaming me for Technical Analysis (which in this case I did not even use):
Quote:
I'm still not bullish about tech in the 80k+ range
Hell, yeah
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 14:31:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 19:29:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Edited by: Claire Voyant on 25/07/2011 17:18:16
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Two months notice? Tech peaked in late May, so you must have posted the sell signal in March. But wait, that link was posted only 7 minutes before. Maybe you meant "investors have had 2 months to figure out that they should have sold in May." When are you going to post the graph showing we should have bought last week?
Edit: Oh wait, I guess you just did. 80K is a "psychological level." I wonder how you came up with that number? Why not 60K or 100K? Oh yeah, because if you picked one of those you would look like a moron.
Thanks for the advance notice you idiot. Next time try posting before everybody already knew what happened.
Why should I consider you or the other similar class B trolls as anything better than being my liquidity pool? Had Akita or Raw23 or someone worthwhile asked me, I'd have happily told them. They do their homeworks though, so they don't need to be told.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 21:52:00 -
[16]
Originally by: knanid volatar
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
You're just a troll
Anyone who asks the question you have asked is too lazy to work it out for themselves
Summarised your post.
Would have asked, but by your own standards that would make me not worthy to ask the question.
How long till you leave now?
No, you could have asked like others did, and be told. I did not write courses and articles for 1+ years for none else to hear.
But the negative nannies, no. They won't get anything.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 22:42:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Exactly!
1+ years of PERFECT 20/20 hind-sight vision! YOU SIMPLY CANNOT DISPUTE THAT!
Seriously, to all the haters: consider who you are dealing with. You're heckling one of the top 10% of humanity here and it's pretty clear that you're in over your financial head. I can only assume at some point VV will use his vast wealth to buy CCP and ban you all. Tread lightly!
If you bothered reading those threads, you'd have seen that there were anticipations as well (when they did not hurt my own business) but I suppose that wooosh noise is covering them.
Finally, finding decent trading setups is fairly easy but they woe at didactical purpose. To find textbook entries that are evident and easy to use as material you have to wait till the price did its job, these cannot be anticipated. IE in the graph I linked, I'd know it was time to sell at the 2M PB but not *how* price would have exactly picked its way, by giving a further advice (bearish channel). Only after that popped up, the whole example became available.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 09:00:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 26/07/2011 09:03:50
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I've followed your posting career and I'm well aware of your trend threads. However; nothing you've posted in anticipation was anything more than an educated guess that someone not using your methodology would have made.Feel free to correct this, if you feel i'm not doing you justice, but I don't think you can.
Both this and the previous other methologies are not "mine". I can't stress enough about the fact I am not advocating any breakthrough invention of mine, I am just using established ways. The early one is so old that its text was hand-written and scanned off some old paper. The later one is what is shown in the 2 finance forum threads I have linked again and again, where a dozen of people posted hundreds of graphs and among them there are tens posted well before the market did what "predicted". I put "predicted" between quotes because it's not voodoo magic but just a statistical projection with success rate > 50%.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
As you have willfully pointed out, graph magic tends to happen after the fact.
No, didactical value graph magic does. Insulated patterns and trades happen all the time but they would be awful examples because if you want to teach something, you have to choose the "blatant examples" that everyone may easily follow, not the "requires 1 year of practice to spot" tricky trades.
Here's a decently RL didactical trade I posted on July 1st and that is going to close today or tomorrow. Here is today's update, I even kept the picture texts in English (forum is in my tongue) so you may easily see how price is reaching the intended take profit (TP) with a noticeable profit of 183 pips. Had I entered in the best spot (I missed it because I rarely look at AUDUSD as I don't like it) I'd have made 388 pips. Of course feel free to browse both that thread and the English version of it to find many other examples.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
... especially since the system itself (explained by your peers elsewhere) pivots entirely on trends by much larger market players (which makes the whole 10% thing very ironic, since the strategy is quite literally to be a parasite on greater individuals or groups).
Of course it is "parasitic"! Any trader including in EvE and including station traders who don't do market manipulation are intermediaries or "parasites". The function of traders is to provide statistical liquidity and to narrow spreads, which is what we really do. The end result is a more optimized market that caters to the "end users" aka i.e. the commodity buyers.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 14:36:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
1. Your sucesses are better documented. Wether or not your own posting caused manipulations that lead to further profit has always been debated, but it's clear that your research into the game mechanics has generally yeilded you fruit. That makes sense. You become in tune with actual supply and demand structures. You attempt to read what the market trends will be. Ultimately, you profit from that.
Akita T picks the big hot things with accurate and time + knowledge intensive research, that end up having the liquidity (large players join in) and trending strength that in the end cause the markets to follow her predictions. As I posted many times (even the thread Akita linked above iirc), funamental analysis - when possible - yields indeed the best results.
Here are the catches:
a) As you may find in old posts me and Shar stayed out of Technetium (due to our own "ethical" reasons). Therefore THE big hot thing went past us (no problem with me).
b) In RL - where I actually trade - unless you are an institution and can afford an army of analysts, expensive structures, long timeframes (read: large capital) you cannot really trade with fundamental analysis. T.A. and HFT are the "next best" choices. You trade less knowledge, higher failure rate and to be "parasitic" with the ability to afford to play along with the big guys. When I switch over to EvE, I tend to have little time and am "drained" by RL trading enough to not care to spend long hours in EvE fundamentals research. However I may afford to trade 10+ markets at a time due to T.A. being so versatile and "portable". In the end, fundamental trading is more for the market makers, T.A. for "just traders".
c) As I said above, Akita T correctly goes to follow the Big Hot Thing, while I am academically interested in the general markets study and pick secondary or even tertiary markets just because they exhibit interesting patterns and stuff. These markets are way less solid and easily manipulated.
I did some "documenting" trades early in my other thread and then I got warned that several big muscle guys were beating the blood off those who followed them. The muscle guys read the analysis and then manipulated those markets to go against the predictions and take profit in the face of the others. Then they'd abandon the market and it resumed its "natural" course but at the expense of the learners and I could not let it happen. So I started following more solid markets like Isotopes and greatly reduced anticipations. You may even find records of me stating these same things in the past.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis You become in tune with actual supply and demand structures. You attempt to read what the market trends will be. Ultimately, you profit from that.
I do the same stuff, just in other ways. I used interpolations, moving averages and some use regression channels etc. that are widely used in RL industry with none objecting to it. When I worked for automotive production lines, a colleague of mine created a robot operated industrial laser plus integrated QA tests that heavily used interpolations, moving averages, filters etc. In the end his control sofware shown onscreen something that could be confused for a trading platform, it works at creating car brake pedals since 2 years ago. A finance (non scammy) technical analyst might do the same operations, with the same formulas, on similar pseudo-random data and get similar functioning results. The robot "chart voodoo" achieved 2 digits precision, a T.A. analysis may achieve 4 digits precision yet people would blindly trust the former and shun the latter.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 14:55:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 26/07/2011 15:01:34
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis 2. I've never seen you simply pop a chart into a post, ignore any and all tertiary factors, and simply draw arbitrary lines along "psychological" boundaries. That makes no sense. To believe that price somehow pivots on invisible psychological boundaries is ludacris. Sure, there are social factors and sometimes the "oh it's dropping below X," comes into play, but pretending these things are more important than an actual understanding of the maket is pure fiction.
It's not pure fiction, it's just very tangible price swings tops and bottoms. When I check a new market out I draw lines (it's NOT needed, in theory all you need is to be practiced enough to visually recognize the swings). The swings by our human nature tend to sit between round numbers, because WE reason in decimal notation and are lazy to type random numbers. Therefore it's quite common to finish drawing the swing lines and then notice they almost perfectly match with the nearby round number. In the case of Tech, I drawn a 80K RN, posted the graph and *then* noticed how a weekly line is perfectly sitting at 100k. I did not even notice it (so I did not recolor it in yellow), yet it happened on my face. Who am I, to tell a market not to go where it wants, including round numbers? Round numbers due to OUR mentality act as natural price magnets and me or you can't do a thing to make it not happen.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
3. You're more than happy to admit that in most cases it is literally just luck and good timing. VV insists that every win was a clearly read price movement and that every miss was simply an unpredictable market.
I don't remember having "misses" and I don't believe in luck. Just in hard work and hard training and long practice. In RL instead I DO have misses (I wish I had them in EvE and not in RL ) but in order to survive as a trader you MUST have a resilient mentality able to just consider the loss as business cost and then move on without looking back. Else you are psychologically DEAD - see my online course videos.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
VV displays the opposite in all cases and now peddals his "potentially life-changing," strategy to the masses as though it were a new law of thermodynamics. Simply put, it flys in the face of common sense and the lack of evidence he's managed to produce in order to even verify that it's worked for him makes it all the easier for myself and other vocal critics to prod.
For all the evidence you want, go and check the RL trading threads I linked several times. Also, I indeed "sinned" in the amount of enthusiasm I put into it.
Why? Because as perma job-less guy I was one of millions with no future and now I found out a way to get out of such situation and want all those like me to know that it is hard but is possible to get out of the tunnel. It takes much effort, 6 intensive months at a minimum learning curve but it *can* be done and I want everyone possibly in a bad RL situation to know, so they get hope.
Quote:
I remember the nitrogen isotopes discussion, he said he had invested just a couple of billion ISK... That's rather paltry and considering it was the hot item of the day it goes a bit to show how little ISK he's got.
I did not put being e-rich as my target, I prefer devoting all my energies into RL trading since it's what feeds me and I assure you that it adsorbs all my energies already. I trade in game just some billions because it's all what I need to prove I was right. RL traders tend to work on % of account, if you make 4%, it's 4% regardless of capital. |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 18:11:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I'm really loving these tangents. No, I wouldn't trust a pattern-seeking robot either.
If you live in the USA you are probably driving a car whose braking depends on a pedal made and tested by that "TA robot".
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I know you're deep into this, but can you not understand your "this is how it works," approach is not getting you anywhere? The critique isn't "how do your lines work/what do they mean." The critique is "your lines are completely bogus/arbitrary hopes for a familiar pattern."
You have just to bother and go check the threads I linked several times to see all the examples you ever wanted. I did not invent any of this, I don't claim ANY credit on this.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.27 07:53:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 27/07/2011 07:56:04
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
Perhaps I should have been more clear: I wouldn't trust it to make run market analysis in a meaningful way. As you've gone out of your way to point out: the market is a social construct, inherently human, and thus prone to unpredictable behavior.
Oh, I wouldn't either. The robot is performing a TA of highly variable signals but with a "squiggly lines" (i.e. moving averages and so on) approach that tends to underperform when applied to RL markets (it works in old style markets like in EvE and we have it in the form of the in game moving averages and Donchian channel). I was just pointing out that there's no voodoo involved anywhere, the same formulas and plotting are used. Oh, the robot also "found out" a production process higher frequency "price levels" where measured values kept falling to, in a pseudo - Gaussian way.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I have bothered to check your links and I see the examples given, but they're just that: examples. Were I to show you two dozen calendar days when it rained and explained to you that since each of my example days began with me tying my shoes, would you assume that to be a corollary?
Yeah but what about having posts days or even weeks old being continuously confirmed in the future? Since you want to stay scientific what is the chance of guessing a coin flip for say 10 times in a row? And guessing a trade is a far less than 50% probability deal, it's a 10% deal (= 90% trading coin tosses are wrong). Feel free to search posts by "fxgroup" (the specific method author) and find how many he predicted wrong. I think one in his whole posting history on 2 different forums.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Regardless of the fact you did not come up with these methodologies, you're making a concerted effort to spread them and expound upon them without providing compelling arguments as to why they are sound, logical observations. Once again, i'm asking you to take an academic approach, provide something other than meaningless "I can circle here where the price did what I thought it was going to do," extrapolations. I've got volumes of economic texts to draw on within my library, so feel free to be as verbose as you like.
I took 3 years of learning in hundreds of books and websites and courses to accrue all the concepts I should use to explain it all. I could spend tens of pages yet your prejudice would just push them away. In the end if you want to prove to yourself if something works or not, you have to sit down like any artisan and start DOING. But you won't because the blinders are too thick, and going the extra mile is :effort: .
Anyway I will give the starting point, where most is explained: Martin Pring books, expecially the one called "On Price Patterns". The most famous "in practice adopter" of that text is called James16 and in the years he teached to the thousands and for free (unless you really want to join a private forum of his, not needed). Here's his stuff. Since you say you are OK at verbose, enjoy his 6624 pages and growing thread.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.27 18:24:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 27/07/2011 18:24:26
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Edited by: Nimrod Nemesis on 27/07/2011 15:29:57 I give up. You're clearly convinced someone rambling in a forum with illustrated chart pics is citation enough. I can only inform you that is simply not the case. All you have proven here is that you're parroting something another forum-warrior before you has done. You can't verify his work to be logical or empirically sound. You can't verify your own work as such. I'm sure at some level you're ever-so-slightly mitigating risk by familiarizing yourselves with a market, but there is absolutely nothing there to suggest you're doing more than gambling like everyone else.
Ironically, such criticisms aren't even broached on over at the forexfactory, but I guess they'd have a hard time doing business without these people. vOv
I even mentioned you one book that describes the whole thing, but I suppose your own request about literature was a farce, eh?
Ah, what about YOU prove those guys on FF wrong with your solid arguments?
Last but not least, the very fact I am posting here is because I can pay my 5 yearly subs (plus 1 on WAR and 3 on Istaria). How do I pay them since I am unemployed since Feb 2011? Let me give you an hint: because I trade and oddly enough, it earns me enough to live and pay a total of 9 subs on 3 MMOs.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.28 10:41:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
I have read those texts, Black Swans only affect those who approach the profession without the basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
In fact you always setup the trade to cover the worst case scenario by using what's called money and risk management. Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.29 09:09:00 -
[25]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 29/07/2011 09:12:34
Originally by: Wyke Mossari That seems to a vanity published eBook, do you really believe it carries any weight against the Black Swan?
The (London) Sunday Times called the Black Swan one of the dozen most important book of modern times. Taleb has been called one of the world's top intellectuals by a Nobel Laureate, lauded by the World Economic conference where he predicted the bankers were leading the world in the current financial predicament years before it happened. Freedman said the refutation of Taleb were 'unconvincing'. He debated the topic of randomness with Mandelbrot. Yes THE Mandelbrot.
I do not think you have grasped the point Taleb is making.
It's not a vanity e-book, in fact the first edition(s) were not meant to be e-books at all. Also, vanity e-books don't tend to last more than one edition. Like Taleb's work, BWILC has been considered quite "out of the conventions" as well.
I don't have particular objections (if any) vs Taleb, but bringing his texts in this argument is irrelevant. We are not talking about things that could go wrong, because a proper trade setup has provision for the "all stars aligned bad => total loss" scenario. In the worst case I lose 2% of my worker account. And so?
Originally by: Darth Tickles
Only The Initiated can grasp the full majesty of The Secret Knowledge.
No, it's as easy to grasp as is working with wood to make forniture. Like wood working once you get it, then you have to put in a lot of practice. Still, the secret knowledge involves hard things like "buy low, sell high", "if today there are many sellers don't buy" and that's it.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.29 09:38:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis I believe this is the part where I declare victory over the dragon VV.
GF o7o7
This is the part where I post the last update to my RL trade.
In your honor, I posted the trade conclusion over there, both in Italian and English so everyone can see.
For the laziest, here's how it went:
Finally, since the concept seems to have wooooshed again and again, many of the posted works are not "just" graphs. Some (like me) indeed have to use a separate, non graphical broker platform to send the actual orders, so they post graphs done on their other (graphical) platform. But others are using an integrated graphs + orders setup platform showing graphs like this one where it's possible to see the order number and the operation performed (buy or sell) and also the stop loss (dashed line above the sale). Therefore they are not just examples, it's visible trades being started some days ago and showing where the market went afterwards.
Anyway I am off buying a new TV for my sister's birthday, and that TV has been kindly "gifted" to me by the markets. Cya
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 06:26:00 -
[27]
Originally by: TornSoul Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
Love how if someone says 100k is "sticky", none comments in any way. If someone else says 100k is a BRN (big round number) and acted as support / resistance (hence the stickyness) he gets burned on a stake.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
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Posted - 2011.08.23 13:58:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 14:03:38
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
Well, I have always argued that VV does exactly the same thing, but he then tells us we were stupid for not seeing 3 months ago what he himself just discovered 5 minutes before.
Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
The latter is forcefully false, I don't (nor know how) to trade in EvE on 5 minutes time frames. It's actually extremely hard to trade on 5 minutes in RL as well.
Edit: I posted "predictions" (your word, not mine) some times but since I am RL market oriented and my time in EvE was limited, I indeed posted more late graphs than "before" graphs. It's because I stuck trading those 2-3 markets (ofc did not post analysis of those ) while the others I give them a look once every 2 months.
The market hints, though, don't grow "old". IE if a weekly retracement BUOB appears today, it means "buy" regardless whether I say it today, 1 week ahead or 1 year later. Of course *to you* it's pointless to be explained I read a price in a certain way when it's too late but the intent was and is to have people learn it themselves and apply that in their markets. I show them the fishing pole that does not expire, it's their task to use it to fish future fish with it.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 17:57:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 17:57:55
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
I can clearly say the word "idiot" and guess what, it was you to say it in the next post.
Oddly enough your memory is not as good to recall the multiple times I said I would generally not post "signals" (= current trades) any more. People used them to manipulate markets I and other TA thread readers were invested in, which is something I don't approve.
Since the basic market rules are the same (I use them interchangeably in RL and EvE) you may always go to the multiple times linked RL trading threads and see the "predictions" (still using your terms) being confirmed trade after trade both by me and by the guy who teaches it. Many are "past trade" examples but all the dozens of examples where you can find a dotted line labelled "buy" or "sell", it's trades in the future.
Originally by: Oh'Freddled Gruntbuggly
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
That's people who put the money where their mouth was and now are enjoying their rewards.
Trading with other people's money is the easist job in the world. If you make a profit your employers will give you a bonus, if you make a loss the taxpayer is made to bail your money-losing asses out.
Didn't know EvE got bailouts. As for RL, people elected those who made those lol bailouts, they got who and what they asked for. This is what happens when you use politicians to deal with economy: a disaster after another.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.24 07:02:00 -
[30]
This reply was so appropriate it deserve a temporary exception to my usual not replying to you.
Originally by: Jerry Pepridge Claire: no reason to sperg butthurt across 3 pages. VV likes technical analysis (98% of ppl know its voodoo, you being one of them.) get over it
VV: tl:dr as usual, please make a new thread when you leave so claire can stop being mad.
1) I am almost tempted to not leave since Claire Voyant rosicking and forum PvP are one of the best EvE experiences in this game.
2) Standard industrial processes involve wave and pattern analysis, no one call them voodoo. It'd be voodoo if someone came to tell he got "The Obscure System" you have to pay a bunch for. Instead, it's 2 years I explain all I can in detail and for free.
I am sorry that people are so scared of trying something when every tool, every "rule", everything about how to do it is freely available and can be *tested* by anyone who want.
All it takes is to be able to see beyond the blinders and to stop being old bigots at 30 years old.
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